Leadership Article: Why Some Leaders Break and Others Thrive in Uncertainty

The Business World Has Changed—Have You?

In today’s rapidly evolving world, business leaders are constantly adapting to new technologies, marketing channels, and global competition—challenges unimaginable to previous generations. This accelerated transformation underscores a critical reality: no CEO can master every domain. While this has always been true, it’s more evident than ever today.

You may have heard the military term VUCA—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—used to describe modern battlefields. Business leaders contend with a similar environment, where the pace of change and unpredictable market forces demand resilience, agility, and clarity. In this landscape, risks and opportunities co-exist.

We live in an era of breathtaking change. The business landscape that once felt familiar and predictable has been replaced by a world of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—VUCA. For many leaders, this shift can be disorienting. The strategies and instincts that once ensured success may no longer apply. The pace of change has accelerated, leaving some feeling untethered from the business world they once knew so well.

If you’re experiencing an underlying sense of uncertainty—one that lingers in the background and disrupts your confidence—you are not alone. This new environment challenges even the most seasoned leaders. But within these challenges lie potential opportunities, provided you are equipped with the right mindset and strategies to navigate them.

The Whirlpools of Business: Understanding VUCA

Warren Buffett famously stated, “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” But what happens when the tides are no longer predictable, when opposing currents create whirlpools of disruption? Business today is not just about the tide going out—it’s about managing multiple crosscurrents, each pulling in a different direction.

The military coined the acronym VUCA in the 1980s to describe the challenging and unpredictable nature of modern warfare. The business world has since adopted the term, as it perfectly encapsulates the conditions we now face:

• Volatility: Sudden, unpredictable changes that make long-term planning difficult.
• Uncertainty: A lack of clarity about what’s coming next.
• Complexity: Intricate, interwoven challenges that defy simple solutions.
• Ambiguity: A fog of confusion where cause and effect are difficult to define.

When confronted with VUCA, the instinctive response for many is fear—fear that leads to inaction. When we don’t know what’s coming next, it’s easy to fixate on worst-case scenarios. But dwelling on hazards without taking action is a recipe for stagnation. Left unchecked, VUCA can spiral into negativity, paralysing decision-making and stalling business growth.

The Fog of War: Business Lessons from the Battlefield

The military’s experience with VUCA provides valuable insights for business leaders. On the battlefield, uncertainty is the only certainty, and inaction is not an option. Leaders must make decisions amidst incomplete information, shifting conditions, and high stakes.

Successful military strategies involve recognising VUCA as an operational reality rather than an insurmountable obstacle. They train leaders to anticipate change, develop adaptive strategies, and make confident decisions even when the path forward is unclear.

Business leaders can do the same. By acknowledging VUCA as an inevitable part of the modern business environment, they can prepare for uncertainty rather than be overwhelmed by it. The goal is not to eliminate volatility, uncertainty, complexity, or ambiguity, but to develop the resilience and strategic agility to operate effectively within them.

The Psychological Impact of VUCA: Fear vs. Anxiety

VUCA affects not just businesses, but the people within them. Our biological responses to uncertainty—deeply ingrained over millennia—can sometimes work against us. Understanding these responses is key to managing them.

• Fear occurs when we are directly confronted with a challenge.
• Anxiety is the anticipation of a challenge before it happens.

Consider the example of standing in a que for a rollercoaster. As you watch the ride dipping and looping, you might feel anxious about the experience ahead. But once you’re strapped in and the ride begins, fear takes over as you hurtle toward the ground.

These same dynamics play out in business. Leaders may experience anxiety when anticipating change, fearing the unknown. But once they are actively engaged in tackling a challenge, they shift into a more focused and action-oriented state. Recognising this shift—and learning to harness the energy of fear rather than being paralysed by anxiety—can make all the difference.

I am often asked about my experiences in combat situations and how people respond to high-pressure environments. I may have been fortunate that my service time was spent in elite units who had been highly trained and knew how to respond. But after the initial eruption of action—contact with the enemy—things slowed down. Instinct and training combined to react in an appropriate way to the situation. If the situation required an immediate instinctive response, that’s what we did. If we had time, even 30 seconds to think, we took it.

To this day, some 30+ years after leaving the military, I still use the process of Think, Plan, Do. In high-pressure situations, whether in combat or business, this structured approach helps ensure that actions are deliberate and effective, rather than reactive and chaotic.

Transforming VUCA into a Competitive Advantage

VUCA isn’t going away. The question is: how will you respond?

In my life as an Operational Advisor and Interim Leader for financial institutions, my work predominantly revolves around improving portfolio companies under pressure—both stressed and distressed. Although people within those businesses rarely know about my previous military service, I realised that marching up and down the office was a dead giveaway some time back. My unique experience from the military helps me understand and tune into the people on the ground within those businesses. The anxiety and fear they feel are the same as in combat.

Our primitive brain, buried deep within our modern brain, cannot distinguish between a saber-tooth tiger, an enemy ambush, or the stress of falling short of a banking covenant. As humans, our stress hormones create the same effect. Understanding this most basic of human instincts is a superpower. It allows me to guide business leaders through uncertainty, helping them regain control and clarity.

Rather than resisting or fearing change, your competitors are facing the same environment and likely in the same situation. They may be bigger, have more cash, or have shinier products, but if you can turn VUCA to your advantage, reacting faster than your competitors, this could become a competitive advantage. In the military, we call this a manoeuvrist approach—speed of manoeuvre from one activity to another, for example, from defensive operations to offensive operations.

The Future Belongs to Those Who Adapt

VUCA presents formidable challenges, but it also offers incredible opportunities for those willing to embrace change. Leaders who learn to navigate volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity will not only survive but thrive.

The business world is not returning to its previous state of predictability. Instead, we must prepare for ongoing transformation. By developing resilience, adaptability, and a proactive mindset, you can turn VUCA from a source of fear into a catalyst for success.